Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSporting CP to win ✓75% · @1.21
Double chanceSporting CP or draw ✓94% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.29
Sporting CP vs Alverca preview and prediction
The match
Alverca travel to face Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 22 August (20:30 WAT). Sporting CP are 3rd with 24 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Alverca sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sporting CP's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Vitória SC 3–2 at home. At home they have won 5 and lost 0 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 3.7 per game.
Alverca's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Estrela 2–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Sporting CP arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.7 for Sporting CP and 0.8 for Alverca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.91 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sporting CP to win – a 75% chance at odds of 1.21. Predicted score: Sporting CP 2–0 Alverca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting CP75%fair 1.34 · @1.21
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @5.90
Alverca6%fair 15.75 · @13.50
3.53Expected goals
2.71Sporting CP xG
0.82Alverca xG
58%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
3–010%
2–19%
3–18%
1–08%
4–07%
From our goals model: Sporting CP 2.7 – 0.8 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting CP to win✓
75%
1.34
1.21
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw✓
94%
1.07
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.67
Half-time result
Sporting CP ahead at half-time✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting CP / FT Sporting CP✓
54%
1.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.29
–
Form
Sporting CP – last 6
WDWWWW
14 Aug
vs Vitória SC
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ Estrela
2–2
D
31 Jul
vs Nottingham Forest
4–1
W
25 Jul
vs Monaco
2–0
W
20 Jul
vs Strasbourg
7–0
W
14 Jul
vs Celtic
4–1
W
3.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Alverca – last 6
DLWLWW
15 Aug
vs Estrela
2–2
D
9 Aug
@ FC Porto
0–2
L
1 Aug
vs Sporting CP B
1–0
W
25 Jul
@ Mafra
0–1
L
22 Jul
vs Estoril
2–0
W
17 Jul
vs CF Os Belenenses
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting CP and Alverca.
What is the prediction for Sporting CP vs Alverca?
Our pick is Sporting CP to win with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Alverca?
On our numbers Sporting CP have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Alverca 6%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting CP vs Alverca?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting CP vs Alverca?
Our predicted score is Sporting CP 2–0 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Sporting CP vs Alverca?
Sporting CP vs Alverca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
