Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 52% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBenfica to win ✓77% · @1.17
Double chanceBenfica or draw ✓93% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.20
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 8.83
Moreirense vs Benfica preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Moreirense take on Benfica on Wednesday 9 September, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT) at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Moreirense are 9th with 14 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Benfica sit 2nd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Moreirense's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to FC Porto 1–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Benfica's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Maritimo 3–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game.
Benfica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 0.8 for Moreirense and 2.7 for Benfica. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 66% and both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.20 – 52% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Moreirense 0–3 Benfica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Moreirense7%fair 14.15 · @13.00
Draw16%fair 6.19 · @7.10
Benfica77%fair 1.30 · @1.17
3.47Expected goals
0.77Moreirense xG
2.70Benfica xG
52%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–310%
1–29%
0–18%
1–38%
0–47%
From our goals model: Moreirense 0.8 – 2.7 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
77%
1.30
1.17
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
93%
1.08
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.65
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✓
58%
1.73
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✓
54%
1.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
8.83
–
Form
Moreirense – last 6
LWLDLW
4 Sep
@ FC Porto
1–2
L
30 Aug
@ Casa Pia
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Arouca
0–4
L
9 Aug
vs SC Braga
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ Felgueiras 1932
1–2
L
1 Aug
vs Amarante
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Benfica – last 6
WWWWWD
5 Sep
@ Maritimo
3–0
W
31 Aug
vs Estoril
2–1
W
27 Aug
@ Aarhus
3–1
W
20 Aug
vs Aarhus
3–1
W
17 Aug
@ Casa Pia
7–0
W
13 Aug
@ Heart Of Midlothian
1–1
D
3.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Moreirense and Benfica.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Moreirense vs Benfica?
On our numbers Moreirense have a 7% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Benfica 77%.
How many goals will there be in Moreirense vs Benfica?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is Moreirense 0–3 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Moreirense vs Benfica?
Moreirense vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
