Primeira Liga · Portugal · Complexo Desportivo FC AlvercaAlverca vs Estrela prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.39 · bookmaker 1.38 · Won ✓
Value bet: Estrela to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alverca 1.5 – 1.3 Estrela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Alverca hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 34% for Estrela.
Alverca have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 per game. Estrela have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.5 for Alverca, 1.3 for Estrela). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.38 is close to our fair price of 1.39. For a bigger price, Estrela to win at 3.30 is our value angle (34% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alverca to win ✗ | 43% | 2.30 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.39 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Alverca / FT Alverca ✗ | 25% | 4.06 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 10.49 | – |
Form
Alverca – last 6
| 9 Aug | @ FC Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | vs Sporting CP B | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Mafra | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Jul | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Jul | vs CF Os Belenenses | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Feb | vs Santa Clara | 1–1 | D |
Estrela – last 6
| 8 Aug | vs Sporting CP | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Aug | vs Al-Nassr | 4–2 | W |
| 29 Jul | @ Maritimo | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Jul | vs Nacional | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Casa Pia | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Jul | vs Naval 1893 | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alverca and Estrela.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More Primeira Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alverca vs Estrela?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Alverca vs Estrela?
On our numbers Alverca have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Estrela 34%.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Estrela?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Alverca vs Estrela?
Alverca vs Estrela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.