Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Santa Clara to win @ 1.84 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Clara to win ✗63% · @1.84
Double chanceSanta Clara or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.59
Santa Clara vs Nacional preview and prediction
The match
Santa Clara host Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Monday 10 August, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estadio de São Miguel. Santa Clara are 4th with 21 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Nacional sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Santa Clara's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Arouca 3–0 at home. At home they have won 5 and lost 0 of their last 6. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nacional's last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Estrela 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Santa Clara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 May 2026, finished Santa Clara 2–0 Nacional.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Santa Clara and 0.7 for Nacional. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Clara 63%, draw 25%, Nacional 12%.
Safer route: Santa Clara or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Santa Clara to win at 1.84 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Santa Clara or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Santa Clara 1–0 Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Clara63%fair 1.59 · @1.84
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.35
Nacional12%fair 8.05 · @4.40
2.47Expected goals
1.79Santa Clara xG
0.68Nacional xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Santa Clara 1.8 – 0.7 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Santa Clara vs Nacional?
Our pick is Santa Clara or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Nacional?
On our numbers Santa Clara have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nacional 12%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Clara vs Nacional?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Nacional?
Our predicted score is Santa Clara 1–0 Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Santa Clara vs Nacional?
Santa Clara vs Nacional (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 10 August 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de São Miguel.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
