Value bet: Famalicao to win @ 2.32 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFamalicao to win ✗51% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.79
Estoril vs Famalicao preview and prediction
The match
Estoril host Famalicao in the Primeira Liga on Friday 7 August, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota. Estoril are 18th with 2 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Famalicao sit 10th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Estoril's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with CF Os Belenenses 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Famalicao's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Como 2–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Famalicao arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Estoril and 1.6 for Famalicao. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Famalicao to win at 2.32 – 51% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Estoril 1–1 Famalicao. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estoril27%fair 3.73 · @2.98
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.30
Famalicao51%fair 1.95 · @2.32
2.63Expected goals
1.05Estoril xG
1.58Famalicao xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Estoril 1.1 – 1.6 Famalicao expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Famalicao to win✗
51%
1.95
2.32 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Famalicao / FT Famalicao✗
30%
3.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.79
–
Form
Estoril – last 6
DDLWLL
31 Jul
@ CF Os Belenenses
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Torreense
0–0
D
22 Jul
@ Alverca
0–2
L
11 Jul
vs Atlético CP
3–0
W
20 Apr
@ Moreirense
0–1
L
6 Apr
@ Arouca
2–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Famalicao – last 6
LWDDWW
31 Jul
vs Como
2–3
L
25 Jul
vs Tondela
1–0
W
22 Jul
vs Arouca
0–0
D
18 Jul
vs Penafiel
0–0
D
15 Jul
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
1–0
W
11 Jul
vs Famalicão U23
5–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estoril and Famalicao.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Estoril vs Famalicao?
On our numbers Estoril have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Famalicao 51%.
How many goals will there be in Estoril vs Famalicao?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our predicted score is Estoril 1–1 Famalicao, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Estoril vs Famalicao?
Estoril vs Famalicao (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
