Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg preview and prediction
The match
The Bundesliga sees Bayer Leverkusen take on SC Freiburg on Sunday 18 October, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at BayArena. Bayer Leverkusen are 5th with 16 points from 9 games (in the top half), while SC Freiburg sit 3rd on 19 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bayer Leverkusen's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Lech Poznan 4–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
SC Freiburg's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat FK Jablonec 3–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.6 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.4 for SC Freiburg. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 69% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 69% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.45, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bayer Leverkusen62%fair 1.60 · @1.67
Draw18%fair 5.54 · @4.00
SC Freiburg19%fair 5.13 · @4.20
4.00Expected goals
2.58Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.42SC Freiburg xG
69%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%
2–26%
2–06%
3–25%
From our goals model: Bayer Leverkusen 2.6 – 1.4 SC Freiburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win✓
62%
1.60
1.67
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
69%
1.45
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayer Leverkusen / FT Bayer Leverkusen✗
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.55
–
Form
Bayer Leverkusen – last 6
WWWWDW
15 Oct
@ Lech Poznan
4–0
W
10 Oct
@ FSV Mainz 05
4–3
W
20 Sep
vs RB Leipzig
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Celje
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ FC Augsburg
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Union Berlin
4–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
SC Freiburg – last 6
WWWDWW
15 Oct
vs FK Jablonec
3–2
W
11 Oct
vs FC Schalke 04
2–1
W
3 Oct
vs FC Luzern
4–2
W
19 Sep
@ Eintracht Frankfurt
2–2
D
12 Sep
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
5–0
W
5 Sep
@ SC Paderborn 07
1–0
W
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg.
What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
On our numbers Bayer Leverkusen have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 18% and SC Freiburg 19%.
How many goals will there be in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Our predicted score is Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at BayArena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
