Bayern München vs Union Berlin preview and prediction
The match
The Bundesliga sees Bayern München take on Union Berlin on Friday 18 September, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Allianz Arena. Bayern München are 1st with 21 points from 9 games (top of the table), while Union Berlin sit 16th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Bayern München's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat SV Elversberg 2–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Union Berlin's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to FC Schalke 04 1–3 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Bayern München arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 2.8 for Bayern München and 1.1 for Union Berlin. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 74% and both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bayern München 74%, draw 13%, Union Berlin 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Bayern München 2–1 Union Berlin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bayern München74%fair 1.35 · @1.06
Draw13%fair 7.73 · @15.00
Union Berlin13%fair 7.86 · @23.00
3.83Expected goals
2.78Bayern München xG
1.05Union Berlin xG
53%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
3–08%
1–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Bayern München 2.8 – 1.1 Union Berlin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayern München to win✓
74%
1.35
1.06
Double chance
Bayern München or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Bayern München ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayern München / FT Bayern München✓
50%
1.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.34
–
Form
Bayern München – last 6
WWDWWW
13 Sep
@ SV Elversberg
2–1
W
10 Sep
vs BodoGlimt
5–0
W
5 Sep
@ FC Schalke 04
0–0
D
2 Sep
@ VfL Osnabrück
4–1
W
28 Aug
vs VfB Stuttgart
5–1
W
22 Aug
@ Borussia Dortmund
2–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Union Berlin – last 6
LLDWLW
11 Sep
vs FC Schalke 04
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Bayer Leverkusen
0–4
L
29 Aug
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
3–3
D
23 Aug
@ Eintracht Braunschweig
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs Ipswich
2–4
L
9 Aug
vs Aris
3–2
W
2.2Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bayern München and Union Berlin.
What is the prediction for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
On our numbers Bayern München have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Union Berlin 13%.
How many goals will there be in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our predicted score is Bayern München 2–1 Union Berlin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Bayern München vs Union Berlin (Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
