Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @2.38
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.34
Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 preview and prediction
The match
The Bundesliga sees Hamburger SV take on FSV Mainz 05 on Sunday 6 September, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at Volksparkstadion. Hamburger SV are 11th with 12 points from 9 games (in the bottom half), while FSV Mainz 05 sit 12th on 10 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Hamburger SV's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Borussia Dortmund 0–2 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
FSV Mainz 05's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with SC Paderborn 07 0–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FSV Mainz 05 arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 February 2026, finished FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.0 goals: 0.5 for Hamburger SV and 0.5 for FSV Mainz 05. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 92% likely. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 2.38, above our fair price of 1.98, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Hamburger SV 0–0 FSV Mainz 05. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hamburger SV39%fair 2.55 · @2.75
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.40
FSV Mainz 0538%fair 2.64 · @2.40
1.00Expected goals
0.51Hamburger SV xG
0.49FSV Mainz 05 xG
50%Both score
8%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–037%
1–019%
0–118%
1–19%
2–05%
0–24%
From our goals model: Hamburger SV 0.5 – 0.5 FSV Mainz 05 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.38.
Who will win Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
On our numbers Hamburger SV have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FSV Mainz 05 38%.
How many goals will there be in Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our predicted score is Hamburger SV 0–0 FSV Mainz 05, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.
When is Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Volksparkstadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
