Value bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVfB Stuttgart to win ✓62% · @1.49
Double chanceVfB Stuttgart or draw ✓82% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.45
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.62
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln preview and prediction
The match
1. FC Köln travel to MHPArena in the Bundesliga on Friday 4 September (19:30 WAT) to face VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart are 8th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while 1. FC Köln sit 15th on 9 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
VfB Stuttgart's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Bayern München 1–5 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
1. FC Köln's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
1. FC Köln arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 2.9 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.6 for 1. FC Köln. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 76% and both teams to score at 68%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Over 3.5 goals at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.35, above our fair price of 1.31, so there is value in it. Predicted score: VfB Stuttgart 2–1 1. FC Köln. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
VfB Stuttgart62%fair 1.62 · @1.49
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @5.00
1. FC Köln18%fair 5.67 · @5.00
4.55Expected goals
2.91VfB Stuttgart xG
1.641. FC Köln xG
68%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
3–17%
2–26%
3–26%
4–15%
1–15%
From our goals model: VfB Stuttgart 2.9 – 1.6 1. FC Köln expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
VfB Stuttgart to win✓
62%
1.62
1.49
Double chance
VfB Stuttgart or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.46
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.85 ▲
Half-time result
VfB Stuttgart ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT VfB Stuttgart / FT VfB Stuttgart✓
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.62
–
Form
VfB Stuttgart – last 6
LWLWDW
28 Aug
@ Bayern München
1–5
L
21 Aug
@ Hansa Rostock
4–0
W
15 Aug
@ Fulham
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs Everton
3–1
W
1 Aug
vs Paris FC
2–2
D
29 Jul
@ Kickers Offenbach
8–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
1. FC Köln – last 6
WWWDWD
29 Aug
vs 1899 Hoffenheim
3–2
W
24 Aug
@ Würzburger Kickers
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Real Sociedad
2–1
W
31 Jul
vs Hertha BSC
2–2
D
23 Jul
@ Bergisch Gladbach
8–0
W
17 Apr
@ FC St. Pauli
1–1
D
3.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln.
What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
On our numbers VfB Stuttgart have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and 1. FC Köln 18%.
How many goals will there be in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our predicted score is VfB Stuttgart 2–1 1. FC Köln, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at MHPArena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
