Value bet: SC Freiburg to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSC Freiburg to win ✓57% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.64
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen preview and prediction
The match
The Bundesliga sees SC Freiburg take on Werder Bremen on Sunday 30 August, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at Europa-Park Stadion. SC Freiburg are 3rd with 19 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Werder Bremen sit 6th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
SC Freiburg's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Motherwell 4–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game.
Werder Bremen's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Lüneburger SK Hansa 3–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
SC Freiburg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.8 for SC Freiburg and 1.0 for Werder Bremen. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: SC Freiburg to win at 1.90 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: SC Freiburg 1–1 Werder Bremen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
SC Freiburg57%fair 1.75 · @1.90
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.65
Werder Bremen22%fair 4.55 · @3.70
2.88Expected goals
1.84SC Freiburg xG
1.04Werder Bremen xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–010%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: SC Freiburg 1.8 – 1.0 Werder Bremen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SC Freiburg to win✓
57%
1.75
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.42
Half-time result
SC Freiburg ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SC Freiburg / FT SC Freiburg✓
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.64
–
Form
SC Freiburg – last 6
WWWWWW
27 Aug
vs Motherwell
4–1
W
23 Aug
@ Fortuna Düsseldorf
5–1
W
20 Aug
@ Motherwell
3–1
W
15 Aug
vs Crystal Palace
3–0
W
8 Aug
vs Strasbourg
2–0
W
24 Jul
vs Derby
3–1
W
3.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Werder Bremen – last 6
WLDWWW
22 Aug
@ Lüneburger SK Hansa
3–0
W
15 Aug
vs Auxerre
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs SC Paderborn 07
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ Energie Cottbus
4–2
W
25 Jul
vs VfL Bochum
2–0
W
22 Jul
vs Fagiano Okayama
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen.
What is the prediction for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
On our numbers SC Freiburg have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Werder Bremen 22%.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our predicted score is SC Freiburg 1–1 Werder Bremen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Europa-Park Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
