Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: La Roche VF to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaen to win ✓41% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.46
Caen vs La Roche VF preview and prediction
The match
The National 1 sees Caen take on La Roche VF on Thursday 15 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT). Caen are 3rd with 22 points from 12 games (in the top four), while La Roche VF sit 1st on 27 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Caen's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Fleury 91 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
La Roche VF's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Aubagne 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
La Roche VF arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Caen and 1.4 for La Roche VF. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caen 41%, draw 24%, La Roche VF 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.62.
Value angle: La Roche VF to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Caen 1–1 La Roche VF. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caen41%fair 2.45 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.10
La Roche VF35%fair 2.84 · @3.10
2.89Expected goals
1.51Caen xG
1.38La Roche VF xG
63%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–18%
2–06%
From our goals model: Caen 1.5 – 1.4 La Roche VF expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caen to win✓
41%
2.45
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caen / FT Caen✗
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.46
–
Form
Caen – last 6
LWLWWL
3 Oct
@ Fleury 91
2–3
L
24 Sep
vs Rouen
3–2
W
19 Sep
@ Concarneau
0–2
L
12 Sep
vs Gobelins
2–0
W
5 Sep
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–0
W
27 Aug
vs Bastia
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
La Roche VF – last 6
WWWDDW
3 Oct
vs Aubagne
3–1
W
26 Sep
@ Thionville Lusitanos
2–1
W
19 Sep
vs Valenciennes
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Villefranche
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Quevilly
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Orleans
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caen and La Roche VF.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Caen vs La Roche VF?
On our numbers Caen have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and La Roche VF 35%.
How many goals will there be in Caen vs La Roche VF?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caen vs La Roche VF?
Our predicted score is Caen 1–1 La Roche VF, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Caen vs La Roche VF?
Caen vs La Roche VF (National 1) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
