Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLa Roche VF to win ✓60% · @1.67
Double chanceLa Roche VF or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.26
La Roche VF vs Aubagne preview and prediction
The match
Aubagne travel to face La Roche VF in the National 1 on Saturday 3 October (19:45 WAT). La Roche VF are 1st with 27 points from 12 games (top of the table), while Aubagne sit 17th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
La Roche VF's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Thionville Lusitanos 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Aubagne's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Fleury 91 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
La Roche VF arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for La Roche VF and 0.6 for Aubagne. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: La Roche VF 60%, draw 25%, Aubagne 15%.
Safer route: La Roche VF or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was La Roche VF or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: La Roche VF 1–0 Aubagne. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
La Roche VF60%fair 1.65 · @1.67
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.60
Aubagne15%fair 6.83 · @4.00
2.06Expected goals
1.49La Roche VF xG
0.57Aubagne xG
51%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–014%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: La Roche VF 1.5 – 0.6 Aubagne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
La Roche VF to win✓
60%
1.65
1.67
Double chance
La Roche VF or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT La Roche VF / FT La Roche VF✗
36%
2.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.26
–
Form
La Roche VF – last 6
WWDDWD
26 Sep
@ Thionville Lusitanos
2–1
W
19 Sep
vs Valenciennes
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Villefranche
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Quevilly
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Orleans
1–0
W
20 Aug
vs Cannes
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Aubagne – last 6
WLLDWL
26 Sep
@ Fleury 91
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Rouen
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Concarneau
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ Gobelins
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–0
W
20 Aug
@ Caen
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between La Roche VF and Aubagne.
What is the prediction for La Roche VF vs Aubagne?
Our pick is La Roche VF or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win La Roche VF vs Aubagne?
On our numbers La Roche VF have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aubagne 15%.
How many goals will there be in La Roche VF vs Aubagne?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for La Roche VF vs Aubagne?
Our predicted score is La Roche VF 1–0 Aubagne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is La Roche VF vs Aubagne?
La Roche VF vs Aubagne (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
