Value bet: Cannes to win @ 2.50 – our chance 46% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCannes to win ✗46% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.99
Bastia vs Cannes preview and prediction
The match
Cannes travel to Stade Armand Cesari in the National 1 on Thursday 17 September (19:45 WAT) to face Bastia. Bastia are 13th with 15 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Cannes sit 7th on 18 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bastia's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cannes's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Amiens 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.8 for Bastia and 1.0 for Cannes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bastia 32%, draw 23%, Cannes 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Cannes to win at 2.50 – 46% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Bastia 1–1 Cannes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bastia32%fair 3.14 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @2.90
Cannes46%fair 2.20 · @2.50
1.83Expected goals
0.79Bastia xG
1.04Cannes xG
54%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–016%
1–113%
1–013%
0–29%
1–27%
From our goals model: Bastia 0.8 – 1.0 Cannes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cannes to win✗
46%
2.20
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.99
–
Form
Bastia – last 6
WLWLWL
12 Sep
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Amiens
0–3
L
27 Aug
@ Caen
1–0
W
20 Aug
vs Versailles
2–3
L
14 Aug
@ Aubagne
1–0
W
7 Aug
vs Le Puy Foot
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Cannes – last 6
DWWDDD
10 Sep
vs Amiens
0–0
D
5 Sep
@ Versailles
3–0
W
29 Aug
vs Le Puy Foot
2–0
W
20 Aug
@ La Roche VF
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Fleury 91
1–1
D
7 Aug
@ Rouen
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bastia and Cannes.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Bastia vs Cannes?
On our numbers Bastia have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cannes 46%.
How many goals will there be in Bastia vs Cannes?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bastia vs Cannes?
Our predicted score is Bastia 1–1 Cannes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Bastia vs Cannes?
Bastia vs Cannes (National 1) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Armand Cesari.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
