Value bet: Caen to win @ 2.20 – our chance 49% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaen to win ✗49% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.61
Caen vs Bastia preview and prediction
The match
Caen host Bastia in the National 1 on Thursday 27 August, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT). Caen are 3rd with 22 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Bastia sit 13th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Caen's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Aubagne 1–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Bastia's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Versailles 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Caen arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.7 for Caen and 1.3 for Bastia. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 53% and both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caen 49%, draw 22%, Bastia 29%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Caen to win at 2.20 – 49% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Caen 1–1 Bastia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caen49%fair 2.06 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.20
Bastia29%fair 3.39 · @3.00
2.97Expected goals
1.70Caen xG
1.27Bastia xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
2–07%
1–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: Caen 1.7 – 1.3 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caen to win✗
49%
2.06
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caen / FT Caen✗
29%
3.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.61
–
Form
Caen – last 6
WLWDWW
20 Aug
vs Aubagne
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Thionville Lusitanos
3–4
L
7 Aug
vs Valenciennes
4–0
W
31 Jul
vs Dieppe
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Al Wakrah
4–1
W
18 Jul
vs Laval
4–2
W
2.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 6
LWLLDD
20 Aug
vs Versailles
2–3
L
14 Aug
@ Aubagne
1–0
W
7 Aug
vs Le Puy Foot
0–2
L
10 Jul
@ Rodez
3–5
L
24 Apr
@ Clermont Foot
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Amiens
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caen and Bastia.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Caen vs Bastia?
On our numbers Caen have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bastia 29%.
How many goals will there be in Caen vs Bastia?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caen vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is Caen 1–1 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Caen vs Bastia?
Caen vs Bastia (National 1) kicks off on Thursday 27 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
