Lugano II host Bavois in the 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday 29 August, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT). Lugano II are 16th with 13 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Bavois sit 17th on 11 points (in the bottom three). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lugano II's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Biel-Bienne 2–5 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 3.0 conceded.
Bavois's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with Brühl 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 1.4 for Lugano II and 2.3 for Bavois. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score in 69% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lugano II 23%, draw 18%, Bavois 59%.
Both teams to score: yes (69%) at 1.40.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 69% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Lugano II 1–2 Bavois. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lugano II23%fair 4.33 · @3.60
Draw18%fair 5.60 · @3.70
Bavois59%fair 1.69 · @1.75
3.75Expected goals
1.41Lugano II xG
2.34Bavois xG
69%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
0–26%
2–26%
0–16%
From our goals model: Lugano II 1.4 – 2.3 Bavois expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bavois to win✗
59%
1.69
1.75
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Bavois ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bavois / FT Bavois✗
38%
2.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.01
–
Form
Lugano II – last 6
LWLLDD
23 Aug
@ Biel-Bienne
2–5
L
15 Aug
vs Luzern II
4–3
W
9 Aug
@ Young Boys II
1–3
L
2 Aug
vs Bulle
1–4
L
30 May
@ Kreuzlingen
1–1
D
23 May
vs Lausanne Sport II
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bavois – last 6
DLLDWW
22 Aug
vs Brühl
0–0
D
19 Aug
@ YF Juventus
0–1
L
15 Aug
vs Servette FC
0–7
L
8 Aug
vs Zürich II
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ Bellinzona
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ La Sarraz-Eclépens
8–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugano II and Bavois.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Lugano II vs Bavois?
On our numbers Lugano II have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Bavois 59%.
How many goals will there be in Lugano II vs Bavois?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugano II vs Bavois?
Our predicted score is Lugano II 1–2 Bavois, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Lugano II vs Bavois?
Lugano II vs Bavois (1. Liga Promotion) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
