Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNumancia to win ✗67% · @1.70
Double chanceNumancia or draw ✗88% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.64
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.14
Numancia vs Navalcarnero preview and prediction
The match
Numancia host Navalcarnero in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Numancia are 1st with 19 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Navalcarnero sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Numancia's last 5: DDDWD Most recently they drew with CF Talavera 0–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Navalcarnero's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Salamanca UDS 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Numancia and 0.5 for Navalcarnero. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Our pre-match pick was Numancia to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Numancia 1–0 Navalcarnero. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Numancia67%fair 1.50 · @1.70
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.30
Navalcarnero12%fair 8.39 · @4.50
2.13Expected goals
1.63Numancia xG
0.49Navalcarnero xG
39%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–016%
0–012%
1–110%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Numancia 1.6 – 0.5 Navalcarnero expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✗
67%
1.50
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Numancia or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Numancia / FT Numancia✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.14
–
Form
Numancia – last 6
DDDWDW
18 Oct
vs CF Talavera
0–0
D
11 Oct
@ Real Ávila
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Getafe II
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Guadalajara
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ SS Reyes
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs A Madrid III
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Navalcarnero – last 6
DDDWWL
18 Oct
@ Salamanca UDS
1–1
D
14 Oct
@ Recreativo Huelva
2–2
D
11 Oct
vs A Madrid III
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ RSD Alcalá
3–1
W
30 Sep
vs Real Murcia
3–1
W
27 Sep
vs Conquense
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Numancia and Navalcarnero.
What is the prediction for Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
Our pick is Numancia to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
On our numbers Numancia have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Navalcarnero 12%.
How many goals will there be in Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
Our predicted score is Numancia 1–0 Navalcarnero, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
Numancia vs Navalcarnero (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
