Value bet: Guadalajara to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuadalajara to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.83
Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara preview and prediction
The match
Real Madrid III host Guadalajara in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 on Wednesday 7 October, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT). Real Madrid III are 11th with 11 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Guadalajara sit 9th on 13 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Real Madrid III's last 5: LLDDW Most recently they lost to Atlético Paso 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Guadalajara's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Gimnástica Segoviana 3–3 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Real Madrid III and 1.2 for Guadalajara. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Madrid III 34%, draw 23%, Guadalajara 43%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Guadalajara to win at 2.50 – 43% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Real Madrid III 0–1 Guadalajara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Madrid III34%fair 2.95 · @2.62
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @2.90
Guadalajara43%fair 2.35 · @2.50
2.25Expected goals
1.04Real Madrid III xG
1.21Guadalajara xG
50%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–011%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Real Madrid III 1.0 – 1.2 Guadalajara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guadalajara to win✗
43%
2.35
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guadalajara / FT Guadalajara✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.83
–
Form
Real Madrid III – last 6
LLDDWL
3 Oct
@ Atlético Paso
0–1
L
27 Sep
@ A Madrid III
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ CF Talavera
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Albacete II
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Gimnástica Segoviana
1–0
W
3 May
vs Conquense
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Guadalajara – last 6
DLWLLW
3 Oct
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
3–3
D
27 Sep
@ Numancia
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs RSD Alcalá
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Salamanca UDS
2–3
L
18 Aug
@ Marchamalo
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Racing Ferrol
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Madrid III and Guadalajara.
What is the prediction for Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara?
On our numbers Real Madrid III have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guadalajara 43%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara?
Our predicted score is Real Madrid III 0–1 Guadalajara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara?
Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
