Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultXerez to win ✓64% · @1.85
Double chanceXerez or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓23% · fair 4.33
Xerez vs Marbella preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 4 sees Xerez take on Marbella on Sunday 25 October, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT). Xerez are 6th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Marbella sit 15th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Xerez's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Ciudad de Lucena 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Marbella's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with Estepona 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for Xerez and 0.4 for Marbella. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Xerez 64%, draw 24%, Marbella 13%.
Safer route: Xerez or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Xerez to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Xerez 1–0 Marbella. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Xerez64%fair 1.57 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.90
Marbella13%fair 7.80 · @4.33
1.79Expected goals
1.38Xerez xG
0.41Marbella xG
44%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–023%
0–017%
2–016%
1–19%
3–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Xerez 1.4 – 0.4 Marbella expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Xerez to win✓
64%
1.57
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Xerez or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Xerez / FT Xerez✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
23%
4.33
–
Form
Xerez – last 6
LDWLDL
18 Oct
vs Ciudad de Lucena
0–1
L
10 Oct
@ Real Betis II
1–1
D
4 Oct
vs Tenerife II
2–1
W
27 Sep
@ Recreativo Huelva
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Don Benito
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Badajoz
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Marbella – last 6
DLLDWL
18 Oct
vs Estepona
0–0
D
11 Oct
@ Badajoz
0–1
L
4 Oct
vs Real Betis II
0–2
L
27 Sep
@ Puente Genil
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Atlético Central
4–1
W
13 Sep
@ Sevilla Atletico
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xerez and Marbella.
Our pick is Xerez to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Xerez vs Marbella?
On our numbers Xerez have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Marbella 13%.
How many goals will there be in Xerez vs Marbella?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xerez vs Marbella?
Our predicted score is Xerez 1–0 Marbella, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Xerez vs Marbella?
Xerez vs Marbella (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
