Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Estepona or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Estepona to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstepona to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceEstepona or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.69
Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena preview and prediction
The match
Estepona host Ciudad de Lucena in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). Estepona are 8th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Ciudad de Lucena sit 3rd on 19 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Estepona's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Marbella 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Ciudad de Lucena's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Xerez 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Estepona and 0.8 for Ciudad de Lucena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estepona 61%, draw 24%, Ciudad de Lucena 16%.
Safer route: Estepona or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Estepona to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Estepona or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Estepona 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estepona61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.00
Ciudad de Lucena16%fair 6.35 · @3.80
2.64Expected goals
1.82Estepona xG
0.82Ciudad de Lucena xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Estepona 1.8 – 0.8 Ciudad de Lucena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estepona to win✗
61%
1.65
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Estepona or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Estepona ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estepona / FT Estepona✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.69
–
Form
Estepona – last 6
DWWLWL
18 Oct
@ Marbella
0–0
D
11 Oct
vs Atlético Central
3–2
W
3 Oct
vs Don Benito
3–1
W
27 Sep
@ Tenerife II
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Puente Genil
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Linares Deportivo
1–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Ciudad de Lucena – last 6
WWWWLD
18 Oct
@ Xerez
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Don Benito
4–2
W
4 Oct
vs Puente Genil
1–0
W
27 Sep
@ Antoniano
3–0
W
20 Sep
vs Tenerife II
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Mijas Las Lagunas
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estepona and Ciudad de Lucena.
What is the prediction for Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Our pick is Estepona or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena?
On our numbers Estepona have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ciudad de Lucena 16%.
How many goals will there be in Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Our predicted score is Estepona 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
