Segunda División RFEF Group 4 · Spain · Banus Football CenterMarbella vs Sanluqueño prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Sanluqueño to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Marbella 1.2 – 1.2 Sanluqueño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Marbella and Sanluqueño on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Marbella have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. Sanluqueño have 3 points from their last 3 (1W 0D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.2 for Marbella, 1.2 for Sanluqueño). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 47%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (11%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 58% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is close to our fair price of 1.72. For a bigger price, Sanluqueño to win at 3.00 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Marbella to win ✗ | 39% | 2.54 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 79% | 1.27 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Marbella / FT Marbella ✗ | 21% | 4.77 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.82 | – |
Form
Marbella – last 6
| 22 May | vs Teruel | 3–1 | W |
| 10 May | vs Juventud Torremolinos | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Apr | vs Gimnastic | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Apr | @ Atlético Madrid II | 4–5 | L |
| 29 Mar | @ Hércules | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | vs Sevilla Atletico | 3–0 | W |
Sanluqueño – last 3
| 6 Mar | @ Real Murcia | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Feb | @ Sabadell | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Feb | vs Atlético Madrid II | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marbella and Sanluqueño.
Segunda División RFEF Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Recreativo Huelva | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Don Benito | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ciudad de Lucena | 10 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Badajoz | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Real Betis II | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 6 |  Xerez | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 |  Mijas Las Lagunas | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Estepona | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Atlético Central | 10 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Sevilla Atletico | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Linares Deportivo | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Puente Genil | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Sanluqueño | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Tenerife II | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Marbella | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 |  Antoniano | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Tamaraceite | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Las Palmas II | 10 | -13 | 5 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 4 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Marbella vs Sanluqueño?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Marbella vs Sanluqueño?
On our numbers Marbella have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sanluqueño 38%.
How many goals will there be in Marbella vs Sanluqueño?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Marbella vs Sanluqueño?
Marbella vs Sanluqueño (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Banus Football Center.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.