Value bet: Castellón II to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultValencia II to win ✗42% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.30
Valencia II vs Castellón II preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 3 sees Valencia II take on Castellón II on Saturday 19 September, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT). Valencia II are 17th with 7 points from 9 games (in the bottom three), while Castellón II sit 3rd on 18 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Valencia II's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Ucam Murcia 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Castellón II's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Alcoyano 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Valencia II and 1.2 for Castellón II. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Valencia II 42%, draw 23%, Castellón II 35%.
Value angle: Castellón II to win at 3.20 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 51% chance at odds of 2.00. Predicted score: Valencia II 1–1 Castellón II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valencia II42%fair 2.38 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.30
Castellón II35%fair 2.85 · @3.20
2.52Expected goals
1.33Valencia II xG
1.18Castellón II xG
47%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Valencia II 1.3 – 1.2 Castellón II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valencia II to win✗
42%
2.38
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valencia II / FT Valencia II✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.30
–
Form
Valencia II – last 6
LDLWLW
13 Sep
@ Ucam Murcia
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Mallorca II
1–1
D
3 May
@ Olot
0–2
L
26 Apr
vs Espanyol II
3–0
W
5 Apr
@ Andratx
3–5
L
28 Mar
vs Terrassa
5–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Castellón II – last 6
WLLWDL
12 Sep
vs Alcoyano
3–0
W
6 Sep
vs Terrassa
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Intercity
1–2
L
29 Aug
@ Reddis
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Teruel
0–0
D
17 May
@ SD Logroñés
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valencia II and Castellón II.
What is the prediction for Valencia II vs Castellón II?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Valencia II vs Castellón II?
On our numbers Valencia II have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Castellón II 35%.
How many goals will there be in Valencia II vs Castellón II?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valencia II vs Castellón II?
Our predicted score is Valencia II 1–1 Castellón II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Valencia II vs Castellón II?
Valencia II vs Castellón II (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
