Value bet: Castellón II to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlcoyano to win ✗37% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.74
Castellón II vs Alcoyano preview and prediction
The match
Castellón II host Alcoyano in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). Castellón II are 3rd with 18 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Alcoyano sit 7th on 14 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Castellón II's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Terrassa 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Alcoyano's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Cieza 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alcoyano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Castellón II and 1.3 for Alcoyano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Castellón II 37%, draw 25%, Alcoyano 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Castellón II to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Castellón II 1–1 Alcoyano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Castellón II37%fair 2.69 · @3.10
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @2.90
Alcoyano37%fair 2.68 · @2.20
2.50Expected goals
1.25Castellón II xG
1.25Alcoyano xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Castellón II 1.2 – 1.3 Alcoyano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcoyano to win✗
37%
2.68
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcoyano / FT Alcoyano✗
21%
4.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.74
–
Form
Castellón II – last 6
LLWDLL
6 Sep
vs Terrassa
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Intercity
1–2
L
29 Aug
@ Reddis
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Teruel
0–0
D
17 May
@ SD Logroñés
0–1
L
10 May
vs SD Logroñés
2–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alcoyano – last 6
DWWDDW
5 Sep
vs Cieza
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Hércules
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ La Nucía
2–1
W
17 May
@ SS Reyes
1–1
D
3 May
@ Porreres
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Sant Andreu
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castellón II and Alcoyano.
What is the prediction for Castellón II vs Alcoyano?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Castellón II vs Alcoyano?
On our numbers Castellón II have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alcoyano 37%.
How many goals will there be in Castellón II vs Alcoyano?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castellón II vs Alcoyano?
Our predicted score is Castellón II 1–1 Alcoyano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Castellón II vs Alcoyano?
Castellón II vs Alcoyano (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
