Segunda División RFEF Group 3 · SpainLorca Deportiva vs Elche II prediction & analysis
Lorca Deportiva or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Draw @ 3.30 – our chance 54% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +79%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lorca Deportiva 1.3 – 1.1 Elche II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lorca Deportiva hold the edge on home soil with a 28% chance of winning, against 17% for Elche II, and a draw (54%) is a real possibility.
Lorca Deportiva have taken 2 points from their last 6 matches (0W 2D 4L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Elche II have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded. Elche II come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.3 for Lorca Deportiva, 1.1 for Elche II). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 44%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%).
Our pick is Lorca Deportiva or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is better than our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Draw at 3.30 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 3.30 ▲ |
| Double chance | Lorca Deportiva or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.28 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lorca Deportiva / FT Lorca Deportiva ✗ | 24% | 4.18 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–1 ✓ | 13% | 7.67 | – |
Form
Lorca Deportiva – last 6
| 15 Aug | @ Águilas | 0–1 | L |
| 3 May | @ Deportiva Minera | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Apr | vs Yeclano | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Apr | @ Almería II | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Mar | @ Melilla | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | vs Estepona | 0–2 | L |
Elche II – last 6
| 19 Aug | vs FC Cartagena | 2–0 | W |
| 3 May | vs Quintanar del Rey | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Apr | @ CD Coria | 0–4 | L |
| 19 Apr | vs Rayo Majadahonda | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Apr | @ Tenerife II | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | vs Fuenlabrada | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorca Deportiva and Elche II.
Segunda División RFEF Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportiva Minera | 9 | +7 | 20 |
| 2 |  Ucam Murcia | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 |  Castellón II | 9 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 |  Castellonense | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  La Nucía | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Cieza | 9 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 |  Alcoyano | 9 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Lorca Deportiva | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Intercity | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Atlético Baleares | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Poblense | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Orihuela | 10 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 |  Mallorca II | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Yeclano | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Real Murcia II | 9 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |  Elche II | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Valencia II | 9 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 |  Peña Deportiva | 10 | -6 | 7 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lorca Deportiva vs Elche II?
Our pick is Lorca Deportiva or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Lorca Deportiva vs Elche II?
On our numbers Lorca Deportiva have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 54% and Elche II 17%.
How many goals will there be in Lorca Deportiva vs Elche II?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
When is Lorca Deportiva vs Elche II?
Lorca Deportiva vs Elche II (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.