Segunda División RFEF Group 3 · SpainLa Nucía vs Poblense prediction & analysis
La Nucía or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 58% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +74%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: La Nucía 1.1 – 1.0 Poblense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates La Nucía and Poblense on our numbers – 22% for the home side, 20% for the visitors and 58% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
La Nucía have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 0.7 per game. Poblense have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. Poblense come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.1 for La Nucía, 1.0 for Poblense). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (12%).
Our pick is La Nucía or draw at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is better than our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Draw at 3.00 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 3.00 ▲ |
| Double chance | La Nucía or draw ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.40 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.06 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 20% | 4.88 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.42 | – |
Form
La Nucía – last 6
| 8 Aug | vs Alcoyano | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Jun | vs Trival Valderas | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Jun | @ Trival Valderas | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Jun | @ Levante II | 1–1 | D |
| 31 May | vs Levante II | 1–0 | W |
| 24 May | @ Saguntino | 0–1 | L |
Poblense – last 6
| 14 Aug | vs Atlético Baleares | 1–0 | W |
| 24 May | @ Águilas | 0–0 | D |
| 17 May | vs Numancia | 2–1 | W |
| 10 May | @ Numancia | 1–0 | W |
| 3 May | @ Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Apr | vs Porreres | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between La Nucía and Poblense.
Segunda División RFEF Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportiva Minera | 9 | +7 | 20 |
| 2 |  Ucam Murcia | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 |  Castellón II | 9 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 |  Castellonense | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  La Nucía | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Cieza | 9 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 |  Alcoyano | 9 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Lorca Deportiva | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Intercity | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Atlético Baleares | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Poblense | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Orihuela | 10 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 |  Mallorca II | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Yeclano | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Real Murcia II | 9 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |  Elche II | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Valencia II | 9 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 |  Peña Deportiva | 10 | -6 | 7 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for La Nucía vs Poblense?
Our pick is La Nucía or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win La Nucía vs Poblense?
On our numbers La Nucía have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 58% and Poblense 20%.
How many goals will there be in La Nucía vs Poblense?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
When is La Nucía vs Poblense?
La Nucía vs Poblense (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.