Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.40 – our chance 54% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +84%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓54% · @3.40
Double chanceUtebo or draw ✓82% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓12% · fair 8.16
Peña Sport vs Utebo preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 2 sees Peña Sport take on Utebo on Sunday 6 September, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT). Peña Sport are 11th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Utebo sit 10th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Peña Sport's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with Mutilvera 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Utebo's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Águilas 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Peña Sport arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Peña Sport and 1.4 for Utebo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Peña Sport 18%, draw 54%, Utebo 28%.
Safer route: Utebo or draw (82%) at 1.28.
Value angle: Draw at 3.40 – 54% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Utebo or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Peña Sport 1–1 Utebo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Peña Sport18%fair 5.43 · @3.10
Draw54%fair 1.85 · @3.40
Utebo28%fair 3.63 · @2.00
2.67Expected goals
1.24Peña Sport xG
1.44Utebo xG
50%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Peña Sport 1.2 – 1.4 Utebo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
54%
1.85
3.40 ▲
Double chance
Utebo or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Utebo / FT Utebo✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✓
12%
8.16
–
Form
Peña Sport – last 6
DDWDWW
18 Aug
@ Mutilvera
1–1
D
24 Apr
@ San Juan
1–1
D
1 Apr
vs Ardoi
2–0
W
29 Mar
@ Beti Kozkor
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Aoiz
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cortes
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Utebo – last 6
LLWLDL
17 May
@ Águilas
1–2
L
3 May
@ Sestao River
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Ebro
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Real Unión
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Real Zaragoza II
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Deportivo Alavés II
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Peña Sport and Utebo.
Our pick is Utebo or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Peña Sport vs Utebo?
On our numbers Peña Sport have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 54% and Utebo 28%.
How many goals will there be in Peña Sport vs Utebo?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Peña Sport vs Utebo?
Our predicted score is Peña Sport 1–1 Utebo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Peña Sport vs Utebo?
Peña Sport vs Utebo (Segunda División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Castellón II0