The Second League sees Nesebar take on Fratria on Sunday 15 November, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT) at Gradski stadion. Nesebar are 14th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Fratria sit 4th on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Nesebar's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Ludogorets II 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Fratria's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Sportist Svoge 6–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Fratria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Nesebar and 1.5 for Fratria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nesebar 31%, draw 21%, Fratria 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.63.
Prediction
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Nesebar 1–1 Fratria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nesebar31%fair 3.18 · @3.12
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @3.48
Fratria47%fair 2.12 · @1.94
2.77Expected goals
1.28Nesebar xG
1.48Fratria xG
52%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Nesebar 1.3 – 1.5 Fratria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Nesebar
Fratria
Attack vs Second League average
-1%
+20%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
-16%
Our expected goals here
1.38
1.44
Our own ratings from every Second League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fratria to win
47%
2.12
1.94
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.93
1.63
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.44
1.32
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fratria / FT Fratria
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.26
–
Form
Nesebar – last 6
LLLLDD
8 Nov
@ Ludogorets II
0–2
L
31 Oct
vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1–2
L
23 Oct
@ Hebar 1918
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs CSKA Sofia
0–2
L
10 Oct
vs CSKA Sofia II
0–0
D
4 Oct
@ Rodopa Smolyan
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fratria – last 6
WLLLWW
9 Nov
vs Sportist Svoge
6–2
W
28 Oct
vs Montana
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Botev Vratsa
1–2
L
9 Oct
@ Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0–2
L
3 Oct
@ Balkan Botevgrad
3–0
W
27 Sep
vs Spartak Pleven
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nesebar and Fratria.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nesebar vs Fratria?
On our numbers Nesebar have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Fratria 47%.
How many goals will there be in Nesebar vs Fratria?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nesebar vs Fratria?
Our predicted score is Nesebar 1–1 Fratria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Nesebar vs Fratria?
Nesebar vs Fratria (Second League) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
