Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Nesebar prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.51
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Nesebar preview and prediction
The match
Nesebar travel to Lokomotiv stadium in the Second League on Tuesday 15 September (16:30 WAT) to face Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa. Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are 7th with 23 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Nesebar sit 14th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Sportist Svoge 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nesebar's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Rilski Sportist 2–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and 0.8 for Nesebar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 61%, draw 25%, Nesebar 14%.
Safer route: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–0 Nesebar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa61%fair 1.63 · @1.91
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.00
Nesebar14%fair 7.20 · @3.80
2.63Expected goals
1.85Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa xG
0.78Nesebar xG
50%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.8 – 0.8 Nesebar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa to win✗
61%
1.63
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa / FT Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.51
–
Form
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa – last 6
DWLWWL
7 Sep
@ Sportist Svoge
0–0
D
3 Sep
vs Dobrudzha
2–0
W
30 Aug
@ Montana
0–3
L
21 Aug
vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2–1
W
16 Aug
@ Spartak Pleven
1–0
W
9 Aug
vs Fratria
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nesebar – last 6
WLDWWW
6 Sep
vs Rilski Sportist
2–1
W
2 Sep
@ Marek
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Yantra 2019
1–1
D
23 Aug
vs Pirin Blagoevgrad
7–0
W
16 Aug
@ Sportist Svoge
1–0
W
10 Aug
vs Dobrudzha
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Nesebar.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Nesebar?
Our pick is Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Nesebar?
On our numbers Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nesebar 14%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Nesebar?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Nesebar?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–0 Nesebar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Nesebar?
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Nesebar (Second League) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Lokomotiv stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
