Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarek to win ✓67% · @1.67
Double chanceMarek or draw ✓89% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.72
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.00
Marek vs Nesebar preview and prediction
The match
Nesebar travel to Stadion Bonchuk in the Second League on Wednesday 2 September (15:00 WAT) to face Marek. Marek are 13th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Nesebar sit 14th on 18 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Marek's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Sportist Svoge 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Nesebar's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Yantra 2019 1–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nesebar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Marek and 0.7 for Nesebar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 42%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marek 67%, draw 22%, Nesebar 11%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Marek to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Marek 1–0 Nesebar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marek67%fair 1.49 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.40
Nesebar11%fair 8.96 · @4.60
2.61Expected goals
1.95Marek xG
0.67Nesebar xG
42%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Marek 1.9 – 0.7 Nesebar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marek to win✓
67%
1.49
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Marek or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Marek ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marek / FT Marek✓
44%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.00
–
Form
Marek – last 6
DWLLLW
29 Aug
@ Sportist Svoge
0–0
D
23 Aug
vs Dobrudzha
4–2
W
16 Aug
@ Montana
0–1
L
7 Aug
@ Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0–1
L
1 Aug
@ Spartak Pleven
1–2
L
25 Jul
@ Fratria
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nesebar – last 6
DWWWLL
29 Aug
vs Yantra 2019
1–1
D
23 Aug
vs Pirin Blagoevgrad
7–0
W
16 Aug
@ Sportist Svoge
1–0
W
10 Aug
vs Dobrudzha
2–0
W
4 Aug
@ Montana
1–3
L
25 Jul
vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1–5
L
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marek and Nesebar.
Our pick is Marek to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Marek vs Nesebar?
On our numbers Marek have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nesebar 11%.
How many goals will there be in Marek vs Nesebar?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marek vs Nesebar?
Our predicted score is Marek 1–0 Nesebar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Marek vs Nesebar?
Marek vs Nesebar (Second League) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Bonchuk.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
