La Liga · Spain · Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna
Athletic Club
Osasuna vs Athletic Club prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Osasuna to win @ 3.60 – our chance 31% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Osasuna 1.1 – 1.5 Athletic Club expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Athletic Club shade it despite being away from home – 49% to win, against 31% for Osasuna.
Osasuna have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.7 per game. Athletic Club have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. Athletic Club come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.1 for Osasuna, 1.5 for Athletic Club). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Osasuna have won 0, Athletic Club have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Osasuna to win at 3.60 is our value angle (31% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Athletic Club to win ✗ | 49% | 2.06 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.40 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.87 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Athletic Club / FT Athletic Club ✗ | 27% | 3.65 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 8.99 | – |
Form
Osasuna – last 6
| 2 Nov | @ Deportivo La Coruna | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Oct | @ Atletico Calatayud | 6–0 | W |
| 26 Oct | @ Sevilla | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Racing Santander | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Real Betis | 2–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
Athletic Club – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Real Sociedad | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Oct | @ Prat | 6–1 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Getafe | 4–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | @ Levante | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Valencia | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Alaves | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 21 Apr 2026 | Athletic Club v Osasuna | 1–0 |
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League hub →Malaga1
Racing Santander2
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
81%@1.20
✓
FT
Espanyol0
Deportivo La Coruna0
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
75%@1.28
✓
FT
Valencia0
Real Madrid3
2Real Madrid to win
75%@1.22
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
On our numbers Osasuna have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Athletic Club 49%.
How many goals will there be in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Osasuna vs Athletic Club (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Sadar.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.