La Liga · Spain · Estadio La Rosaleda

Malaga

LWDLD

1–2

Racing Santander

LWWLD

Malaga vs Racing Santander prediction & analysis

81%

Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating

1.20Odds

Value bet: Racing Santander to win @ 2.88 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultRacing Santander to win ✓39% · @2.88

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.57

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 11.81

Win chances

Malaga38%fair 2.63 · @2.35

Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.60

Racing Santander39%fair 2.53 · @2.88

3.14Expected goals

1.55Malaga xG

1.59Racing Santander xG

63%Both score

59%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–111%

1–28%

2–18%

0–17%

1–07%

2–27%

From our goals model: Malaga 1.6 – 1.6 Racing Santander expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Malaga and Racing Santander on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Malaga have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Racing Santander have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.

We expect around 3.1 goals (1.6 for Malaga, 1.6 for Racing Santander). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).

In their last 1 meeting, Malaga have won 0, Racing Santander have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.24. For a bigger price, Racing Santander to win at 2.88 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Racing Santander to win ✓	39%	2.53	2.88 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.29	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	63%	1.60	1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	81%	1.24	1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	59%	1.70	1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	63%	1.60	1.50
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	39%	2.59	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Racing Santander / FT Racing Santander ✗	23%	4.33	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✓	8%	11.81	–

Form

Malaga – last 6

LWDLDL

31 Oct	@ Real Betis	1–2	L
27 Oct	@ Alcazar	3–0	W
23 Oct	@ Alaves	1–1	D
18 Oct	vs Real Sociedad	2–5	L
9 Oct	vs Espanyol	1–1	D
20 Sep	@ Getafe	0–1	L

1.3Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Racing Santander – last 6

LWWLDL

1 Nov	vs Real Madrid	0–3	L
29 Oct	@ Ribadesella CF	2–0	W
24 Oct	vs Espanyol	2–1	W
18 Oct	@ Osasuna	0–2	L
11 Oct	vs Valencia	2–2	D
19 Sep	@ Celta Vigo	0–5	L

1.0Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

33%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Head to head

24 May 2026

Malaga v Racing Santander

1–1

La Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5

More La Liga predictions

League hub →

Espanyol0

Deportivo La Coruna0 432334 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓ FT

Osasuna1

Athletic Club1 312149 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓ FT

Valencia0

Real Madrid3 61875 2Real Madrid to win 75%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Malaga vs Racing Santander?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Malaga vs Racing Santander?

On our numbers Malaga have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Racing Santander 39%.

How many goals will there be in Malaga vs Racing Santander?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

When is Malaga vs Racing Santander?

Malaga vs Racing Santander (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Rosaleda.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.