Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol prediction & analysis

Very little separates Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Rayo Vallecano have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.8 per game. Espanyol have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.

We expect around 3.5 goals (1.7 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.8 for Espanyol). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).

In their last 1 meeting, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, Espanyol have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Both teams to score at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Espanyol to win at 3.20 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).