La Liga · Spain · Estadio de MendizorrozaAlaves vs Valencia prediction & analysis
Alaves to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alaves 1.9 – 0.8 Valencia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Alaves are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 13% for Valencia.
Alaves have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Valencia have 1 points from their last 6 (0W 1D 5L), averaging 0.3 scored and 2.0 conceded. Alaves come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 for Alaves, 0.8 for Valencia). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Alaves to win at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.85 is better than our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alaves to win ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Alaves or draw ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Half-time result | Alaves ahead at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.22 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Alaves / FT Alaves ✗ | 40% | 2.49 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.85 | – |
Form
Alaves – last 6
| 12 Sep | @ Racing Santander | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | @ Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Getafe | 3–0 | W |
| 7 Aug | @ Racing Santander | 1–1 | D |
Valencia – last 6
| 11 Sep | @ Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ Deportivo La Coruna | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Aug | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Newcastle | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Valencia.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alaves vs Valencia?
Our pick is Alaves to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Alaves vs Valencia?
On our numbers Alaves have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Valencia 13%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Valencia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves vs Valencia (La Liga) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.