Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultVillarreal to win ✓61% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.26
Malaga vs Villarreal preview and prediction
The match
The La Liga sees Malaga take on Villarreal on Thursday 17 September, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at La Rosaleda. Malaga are 20th with 5 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Villarreal sit 8th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Malaga's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with Celta Vigo 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Villarreal's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Real Betis 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.9 for Malaga and 1.8 for Villarreal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%.
Our pre-match pick was Villarreal to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Malaga 0–1 Villarreal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Malaga21%fair 4.85 · @3.50
Draw18%fair 5.41 · @3.60
Villarreal61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
2.70Expected goals
0.90Malaga xG
1.80Villarreal xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Malaga 0.9 – 1.8 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win✓
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Villarreal ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal✓
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.26
–
Form
Malaga – last 6
DDLDLD
13 Sep
@ Celta Vigo
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Levante
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Real Madrid
0–4
L
24 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
1–1
D
19 Aug
@ Atletico Madrid
0–2
L
12 Aug
vs Fulham
2–2
D
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 6
LLLLDD
14 Sep
vs Real Betis
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ Borussia Dortmund
2–3
L
5 Sep
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–3
L
28 Aug
@ Alaves
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ Atletico Madrid
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Racing Santander
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malaga and Villarreal.
Our pick is Villarreal to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Malaga vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Malaga have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Villarreal 61%.
How many goals will there be in Malaga vs Villarreal?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malaga vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Malaga 0–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Malaga vs Villarreal?
Malaga vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at La Rosaleda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
