La Liga · Spain · Estadio MendizorrotzaAlaves vs Getafe prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.38 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Getafe to win @ 3.75 – our chance 39% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +46%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alaves 0.9 – 1.0 Getafe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Alaves and Getafe on our numbers – 34% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 28% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Alaves have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.3 per game. Getafe have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Alaves come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (0.9 for Alaves, 1.0 for Getafe). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.38 is close to our fair price of 1.46. For a bigger price, Getafe to win at 3.75 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Getafe to win ✗ | 39% | 2.58 | 3.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 72% | 1.38 | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 22% | 4.51 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 6.93 | – |
Form
Alaves – last 6
| 7 Aug | @ Racing Santander | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Jul | vs Castellón | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Girona | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Eibar | 1–1 | D |
| 17 May | @ Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 13 May | vs Barcelona | 1–0 | W |
Getafe – last 6
| 8 Aug | @ Tottenham | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Aug | @ Monaco | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Jul | @ Atletico Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 25 Jul | @ Valladolid | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Jul | @ Tenerife | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Jul | vs Reading | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Getafe.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alaves vs Getafe?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Alaves vs Getafe?
On our numbers Alaves have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Getafe 39%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Getafe?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Alaves vs Getafe?
Alaves vs Getafe (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.