Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBurgos to win ✓67% · @1.65
Double chanceBurgos or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.31
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC preview and prediction
The match
AD Ceuta FC travel to face Burgos in the Segunda División on Friday 11 September (19:30 WAT). Burgos are 3rd with 24 points from 13 games (in the top four), while AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd on 5 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Burgos's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Oviedo 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
AD Ceuta FC's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Celta de Vigo II 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 April 2026, finished Burgos 1–1 AD Ceuta FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Burgos and 0.8 for AD Ceuta FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Burgos 67%, draw 20%, AD Ceuta FC 13%.
Safer route: Burgos or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Burgos to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Burgos 2–0 AD Ceuta FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burgos67%fair 1.49 · @1.65
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.60
AD Ceuta FC13%fair 7.76 · @4.75
2.88Expected goals
2.08Burgos xG
0.80AD Ceuta FC xG
55%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Burgos 2.1 – 0.8 AD Ceuta FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Burgos to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
On our numbers Burgos have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and AD Ceuta FC 13%.
How many goals will there be in Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our predicted score is Burgos 2–0 AD Ceuta FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC (Segunda División) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
