Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Las Palmas to win @ 1.92 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLas Palmas to win ✗62% · @1.92
Double chanceLas Palmas or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.43
Las Palmas vs Leganes preview and prediction
The match
Leganes travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria in the Segunda División on Friday 4 September (19:30 WAT) to face Las Palmas. Las Palmas are 10th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Leganes sit 18th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Las Palmas's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Girona 2–5 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Leganes's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Eldense 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leganes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 April 2026, finished Las Palmas 2–0 Leganes.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Las Palmas and 0.8 for Leganes. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Las Palmas 62%, draw 21%, Leganes 17%.
Safer route: Las Palmas or draw (83%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Las Palmas to win at 1.92 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Las Palmas or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Las Palmas 1–0 Leganes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Las Palmas62%fair 1.61 · @1.92
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.30
Leganes17%fair 5.97 · @4.10
2.59Expected goals
1.80Las Palmas xG
0.79Leganes xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Las Palmas 1.8 – 0.8 Leganes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Las Palmas or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Las Palmas vs Leganes?
On our numbers Las Palmas have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leganes 17%.
How many goals will there be in Las Palmas vs Leganes?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Palmas vs Leganes?
Our predicted score is Las Palmas 1–0 Leganes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Las Palmas vs Leganes?
Las Palmas vs Leganes (Segunda División) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
