III Liga Group 1 · PolandWarta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Warta Sieradz 1.7 – 1.9 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki shade it despite being away from home – 45% to win, against 36% for Warta Sieradz.
Warta Sieradz have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.8 per game. Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 3.5 goals (1.7 for Warta Sieradz, 1.9 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.56. For a bigger price, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki to win at 2.40 is our value angle (45% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki to win ✗ | 45% | 2.24 | 2.40 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 36% | 2.78 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki / FT Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki ✗ | 26% | 3.79 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.74 | – |
Form
Warta Sieradz – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Olimpia Zambrów | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sep | vs Olimpia Elbląg | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Swit | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Ząbkovia Ząbki | 0–4 | L |
| 19 Aug | @ Troszyn | 4–1 | W |
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki – last 6
| 26 Sep | vs Wigry Suwałki | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Wisła Płock II | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Sep | @ Widzew II | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Olimpia Zambrów | 5–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Olimpia Elbląg | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Warta Sieradz and Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki.
III Liga Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Weszlo | 16 | +14 | 35 |
| 2 |  Wigry Suwałki | 16 | +16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 16 | +10 | 30 |
| 4 |  Swit | 16 | +9 | 29 |
| 5 |  Warta Sieradz | 16 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 |  Ząbkovia Ząbki | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Wisła Płock II | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 8 |  Pelikan Łowicz | 16 | +2 | 24 |
| 9 |  Olimpia Zambrów | 16 | +1 | 24 |
| 10 |  ŁKS Łódź II | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 11 |  Olimpia Elbląg | 16 | -3 | 21 |
| 12 |  Jagiellonia II | 16 | -1 | 20 |
| 13 |  Widzew II | 16 | +2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 16 | -8 | 17 |
| 16 |  Mławianka Mława | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 17 |  Troszyn | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 18 |  Łomża | 16 | -20 | 4 |
More III Liga Group 1 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?
On our numbers Warta Sieradz have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 45%.
How many goals will there be in Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?
Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (III Liga Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.