Value bet: Jagiellonia II to win @ 1.92 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultJagiellonia II to win ✗56% · @1.92
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.69
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗68% · @1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.18
Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki preview and prediction
The match
Lechia T. Mazowiecki travel to face Jagiellonia II in the III Liga Group 1 on Saturday 29 August (11:00 WAT). Jagiellonia II are 12th with 20 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Lechia T. Mazowiecki sit 15th on 17 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Jagiellonia II's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Weszlo 0–4 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Lechia T. Mazowiecki's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat ŁKS Łódź II 4–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 2.3 for Jagiellonia II and 1.5 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Jagiellonia II 56%, draw 21%, Lechia T. Mazowiecki 23%.
Value angle: Jagiellonia II to win at 1.92 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.41. Predicted score: Jagiellonia II 2–1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Jagiellonia II56%fair 1.79 · @1.92
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.50
Lechia T. Mazowiecki23%fair 4.42 · @3.10
3.79Expected goals
2.33Jagiellonia II xG
1.46Lechia T. Mazowiecki xG
59%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–27%
2–06%
1–26%
From our goals model: Jagiellonia II 2.3 – 1.5 Lechia T. Mazowiecki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Jagiellonia II to win✗
56%
1.79
1.92 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.19
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.41
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.60
Half-time result
Jagiellonia II ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Jagiellonia II / FT Jagiellonia II✗
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.18
–
Form
Jagiellonia II – last 6
LWDDWW
23 Aug
@ Weszlo
0–4
L
19 Aug
vs Pelikan Łowicz
3–0
W
15 Aug
@ Warta Sieradz
2–2
D
7 Aug
vs Wigry Suwałki
1–1
D
31 Jul
@ Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
3–2
W
25 Jul
@ Podlasie Biała Podlaska
4–3
W
2.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lechia T. Mazowiecki – last 6
WWWLLW
23 Aug
vs ŁKS Łódź II
4–3
W
19 Aug
@ Mławianka Mława
3–2
W
14 Aug
vs Łomża
5–2
W
8 Aug
@ Wisła Płock II
1–2
L
31 Jul
@ Weszlo
1–2
L
11 Jul
@ Star Starachowice
3–1
W
2.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jagiellonia II and Lechia T. Mazowiecki.
What is the prediction for Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.
Who will win Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?
On our numbers Jagiellonia II have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lechia T. Mazowiecki 23%.
How many goals will there be in Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?
Our predicted score is Jagiellonia II 2–1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki?
Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki (III Liga Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
