Value bet: Polonia Środa to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPolonia Środa to win ✓56% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.73
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.07
Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa preview and prediction
The match
The III Liga Group 2 sees Lech Poznań II take on Polonia Środa on Sunday 18 October, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Amica Wronki Stadium. Lech Poznań II are 5th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Polonia Środa sit 1st on 37 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Lech Poznań II's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Wda Świecie 1–4 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Polonia Środa's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Kluczevia Stargard 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Polonia Środa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 March 2026, finished Lech Poznań II 1–1 Polonia Środa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.5 for Lech Poznań II and 2.2 for Polonia Środa. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Polonia Środa to win at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Lech Poznań II 1–2 Polonia Środa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lech Poznań II26%fair 3.86 · @2.90
Draw18%fair 5.57 · @3.90
Polonia Środa56%fair 1.78 · @1.91
3.71Expected goals
1.47Lech Poznań II xG
2.24Polonia Środa xG
58%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
2–27%
0–26%
2–16%
From our goals model: Lech Poznań II 1.5 – 2.2 Polonia Środa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa?
On our numbers Lech Poznań II have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Polonia Środa 56%.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa?
Our predicted score is Lech Poznań II 1–2 Polonia Środa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa?
Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa (III Liga Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Amica Wronki Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
