III Liga Group 2 · PolandPolonia Środa vs Gedania Gdansk prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Polonia Środa 2.7 – 1.2 Gedania Gdansk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Polonia Środa are clear favourites at home with a 69% chance of winning, against 13% for Gedania Gdansk.
Polonia Środa have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Gedania Gdansk have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 2.5 conceded. Polonia Środa come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.9 goals (2.7 for Polonia Środa, 1.2 for Gedania Gdansk). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.36 is close to our fair price of 1.40.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Polonia Środa to win ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| Double chance | Polonia Środa or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.40 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | – |
| Half-time result | Polonia Środa ahead at half-time ✗ | 53% | 1.89 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Polonia Środa / FT Polonia Środa ✗ | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.26 | – |
Form
Polonia Środa – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Lipno Stęszew | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Aug | vs Stargard Szczeciński | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | @ Chemik Bydgoszcz | 4–1 | W |
| 7 Aug | vs Victoria Września | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | @ Bałtyk Koszalin | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Olimpia Grudziądz | 0–3 | L |
Gedania Gdansk – last 6
| 23 Aug | vs Lech Poznań II | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Aug | @ Kluczevia Stargard | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Wda Świecie | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Elana Toruń | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Jul | vs Noteć Czarnków | 5–3 | W |
| 11 Jul | @ Olimpia Elbląg | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Polonia Środa and Gedania Gdansk.
III Liga Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Polonia Środa | 16 | +22 | 37 |
| 2 |  Kluczevia Stargard | 16 | +4 | 30 |
| 3 |  Luzino | 16 | +15 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wda Świecie | 16 | +4 | 29 |
| 5 |  Lech Poznań II | 16 | +11 | 27 |
| 6 |  Stargard Szczeciński | 16 | +9 | 24 |
| 7 |  Unia Swarzędz | 16 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 |  Bałtyk Koszalin | 16 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 |  Noteć Czarnków | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 |  Kalisz | 16 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 |  Elana Toruń | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 12 |  Gedania Gdansk | 16 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 |  Grom Nowy Staw | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 |  Chemik Bydgoszcz | 16 | -5 | 18 |
| 15 |  Flota Świnoujście | 16 | -13 | 18 |
| 16 |  Lipno Stęszew | 16 | -11 | 14 |
| 17 |  Victoria Września | 16 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Kotwica Kórnik | 16 | -22 | 11 |
More III Liga Group 2 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Polonia Środa vs Gedania Gdansk?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Polonia Środa vs Gedania Gdansk?
On our numbers Polonia Środa have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Gedania Gdansk 13%.
How many goals will there be in Polonia Środa vs Gedania Gdansk?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Polonia Środa vs Gedania Gdansk?
Polonia Środa vs Gedania Gdansk (III Liga Group 2) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.