III Liga Group 3 · Poland · KGHM Zaglebie ArenaZagłębie Lubin II vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.74 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Zaglebie Sosnowiec to win @ 2.55 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Zagłębie Lubin II 1.4 – 1.5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Zagłębie Lubin II and Zaglebie Sosnowiec on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 43% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Zagłębie Lubin II have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (2W 4D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Zaglebie Sosnowiec have 15 points from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. Zaglebie Sosnowiec come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.4 for Zagłębie Lubin II, 1.5 for Zaglebie Sosnowiec). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 58%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 58% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.74. For a bigger price, Zaglebie Sosnowiec to win at 2.55 is our value angle (43% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Zaglebie Sosnowiec to win ✓ | 43% | 2.34 | 2.55 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.74 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.47 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Zaglebie Sosnowiec / FT Zaglebie Sosnowiec ✓ | 24% | 4.12 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.36 | – |
Form
Zagłębie Lubin II – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Odra Bytom Odrzański | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Górnik Polkowice | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Barycz Sułów | 3–3 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Carina Gubin | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ ROW Rybnik | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 1–0 | W |
Zaglebie Sosnowiec – last 6
| 14 Oct | vs Rakow II | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Kluczbork | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Odra Bytom Odrzański | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Górnik Polkowice | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Polonia Nysa | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Barycz Sułów | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zagłębie Lubin II and Zaglebie Sosnowiec.
III Liga Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 16 | +16 | 37 |
| 2 |  Sparta Katowice | 16 | +21 | 36 |
| 3 |  Odra Bytom Odrzański | 16 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |  Zagłębie Lubin II | 16 | +7 | 27 |
| 5 |  ROW Rybnik | 16 | +8 | 26 |
| 6 |  Miedź Legnica II | 16 | +8 | 23 |
| 7 |  Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 16 | +5 | 23 |
| 8 |  Kluczbork | 16 | -3 | 23 |
| 9 |  Górnik Polkowice | 16 | +1 | 22 |
| 10 |  Barycz Sułów | 15 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 |  Goczałkowice Zdrój | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 |  Stal Brzeg | 16 | +5 | 19 |
| 13 |  Stilon Gorzów | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 14 |  Carina Gubin | 16 | -13 | 16 |
| 15 |  Ślęza Wrocław | 16 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 |  Warta Gorzów | 16 | -19 | 14 |
| 17 |  Rakow II | 16 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |  Polonia Nysa | 15 | -14 | 13 |
More III Liga Group 3 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Zagłębie Lubin II vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Zagłębie Lubin II vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?
On our numbers Zagłębie Lubin II have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Zaglebie Sosnowiec 43%.
How many goals will there be in Zagłębie Lubin II vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Zagłębie Lubin II vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?
Zagłębie Lubin II vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec (III Liga Group 3) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.