Moravia Morawica vs Czarni Połaniec prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Czarni Połaniec or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
2
Value bet: Czarni Połaniec to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCzarni Połaniec to win ✓58% · @1.85
Double chanceCzarni Połaniec or draw ✓79% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.97
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓10% · fair 10.07
Moravia Morawica vs Czarni Połaniec preview and prediction
The match
Czarni Połaniec travel to face Moravia Morawica in the III Liga Group 4 on Sunday 13 September (15:00 WAT). Moravia Morawica are 17th with 12 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Czarni Połaniec sit 6th on 28 points (in the top half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Moravia Morawica's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Hetman Zamosc 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Czarni Połaniec's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Czarni Połaniec arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.1 for Moravia Morawica and 1.9 for Czarni Połaniec. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 51% of our simulations.
Safer route: Czarni Połaniec or draw (79%) at 1.28.
Value angle: Czarni Połaniec to win at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Czarni Połaniec or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Moravia Morawica 1–1 Czarni Połaniec. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Moravia Morawica21%fair 4.87 · @3.20
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.75
Czarni Połaniec58%fair 1.72 · @1.85
2.98Expected goals
1.05Moravia Morawica xG
1.93Czarni Połaniec xG
51%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–210%
0–110%
0–29%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Moravia Morawica 1.1 – 1.9 Czarni Połaniec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Czarni Połaniec to win✓
58%
1.72
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Czarni Połaniec or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Czarni Połaniec ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Czarni Połaniec / FT Czarni Połaniec✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
10%
10.07
–
Form
Moravia Morawica – last 6
LLLWLW
5 Sep
@ Hetman Zamosc
1–2
L
30 Aug
vs KSZO 1929
0–4
L
22 Aug
@ Wisła Kraków II
0–1
L
19 Aug
vs Naprzód
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs Chełmianka Chełm
0–3
L
8 Aug
@ Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Czarni Połaniec – last 6
WWWLLW
5 Sep
vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
3–0
W
28 Aug
@ Wiślanie Jaśkowice
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ Korona Kielce II
4–3
W
19 Aug
@ Star Starachowice
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska
0–2
L
8 Aug
@ Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Moravia Morawica and Czarni Połaniec.
What is the prediction for Moravia Morawica vs Czarni Połaniec?
Our pick is Czarni Połaniec or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Moravia Morawica vs Czarni Połaniec?
On our numbers Moravia Morawica have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Czarni Połaniec 58%.
How many goals will there be in Moravia Morawica vs Czarni Połaniec?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Moravia Morawica vs Czarni Połaniec?
Our predicted score is Moravia Morawica 1–1 Czarni Połaniec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Moravia Morawica vs Czarni Połaniec?
Moravia Morawica vs Czarni Połaniec (III Liga Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
