Value bet: ETSV Hamburg to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultETSV Hamburg to win ✗59% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓72% · @1.26
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓75% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.50
ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV preview and prediction
The match
Niendorfer TSV travel to face ETSV Hamburg in the Oberliga Hamburg on Friday 9 October (18:30 WAT). ETSV Hamburg are 1st with 83 points from 34 games (top of the table), while Niendorfer TSV sit 9th on 50 points (in the top half). A gap of 33 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
ETSV Hamburg's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Paloma 4–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Niendorfer TSV's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Concordia 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished ETSV Hamburg 2–1 Niendorfer TSV.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.4 for ETSV Hamburg and 1.5 for Niendorfer TSV. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score in 72% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: ETSV Hamburg to win at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.23. Predicted score: ETSV Hamburg 2–1 Niendorfer TSV. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ETSV Hamburg59%fair 1.68 · @1.85
Draw14%fair 7.06 · @4.30
Niendorfer TSV26%fair 3.79 · @2.98
3.91Expected goals
2.39ETSV Hamburg xG
1.52Niendorfer TSV xG
72%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%
2–27%
2–06%
1–26%
From our goals model: ETSV Hamburg 2.4 – 1.5 Niendorfer TSV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV?
On our numbers ETSV Hamburg have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Niendorfer TSV 26%.
How many goals will there be in ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV?
Our predicted score is ETSV Hamburg 2–1 Niendorfer TSV, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV?
ETSV Hamburg vs Niendorfer TSV (Oberliga Hamburg) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
