Premier League · Ukraine · Arena LvivShakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya prediction & analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.0 – 0.8 Polessya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 11% for Polessya.
Shakhtar Donetsk have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Polessya have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (2.0 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0.8 for Polessya). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 1, Polessya have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Shakhtar Donetsk to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.73 is better than our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Shakhtar Donetsk to win ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Double chance | Shakhtar Donetsk or draw ✗ | 89% | 1.12 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Shakhtar Donetsk ahead at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Shakhtar Donetsk / FT Shakhtar Donetsk ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.87 | – |
Form
Shakhtar Donetsk – last 6
| 16 Aug | @ FC Kharkiv | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Aug | vs Kudrivka | 5–1 | W |
| 26 Jul | @ Bursaspor | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Jul | @ HNK Gorica | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Jul | @ NK Slaven Belupo | 2–2 | D |
Polessya – last 6
| 17 Aug | vs Zorya Luhansk | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Aug | vs FC Kharkiv | 3–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | @ Chornomorets | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Jul | @ FC Copenhagen | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Jul | vs FC Copenhagen | 3–3 | D |
| 14 Jul | @ Plzen | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 20 Apr 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk v Polessya | 1–0 |
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 12 | +17 | 29 |
| 2 |  Polessya | 11 | +17 | 28 |
| 3 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 11 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 |  FC Kharkiv | 9 | +11 | 21 |
| 5 |  Karpaty | 11 | +14 | 19 |
| 6 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Zorya Luhansk | 12 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 12 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 |  Bukovyna | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 |  Chornomorets | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 |  Livyi Bereh | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Veres Rivne | 12 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 11 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Kudrivka | 12 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Kryvbas KR | 10 | -8 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Our pick is Shakhtar Donetsk to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
On our numbers Shakhtar Donetsk have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Polessya 11%.
How many goals will there be in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Lviv.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.