Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPolessya to win ✓63% · @1.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.73
Chornomorets vs Polessya preview and prediction
The match
Chornomorets host Polessya in the Premier League on Sunday 2 August, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Stadion Chornomorets. Chornomorets are 11th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Polessya sit 2nd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Chornomorets's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Kolos Kovalivka 1–2 away. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Polessya's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to FC Copenhagen 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Chornomorets arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Chornomorets and 1.8 for Polessya. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 54% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Chornomorets 0–2 Polessya. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chornomorets19%fair 5.17 · @7.75
Draw18%fair 5.51 · @3.90
Polessya63%fair 1.60 · @1.40
2.63Expected goals
0.83Chornomorets xG
1.80Polessya xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Chornomorets 0.8 – 1.8 Polessya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Polessya to win✓
63%
1.60
1.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Half-time result
Polessya ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Polessya / FT Polessya✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.73
–
Form
Chornomorets – last 6
LWWLWW
25 Jul
@ Kolos Kovalivka
1–2
L
18 Jul
vs Nyva Vinnytsya
2–1
W
10 Jul
vs Inhulets
1–0
W
4 Jul
@ Oleksandria
0–2
L
1 Jul
vs Kryvbas KR
2–1
W
1 Jun
vs Metal Kharkiv
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Polessya – last 6
LDLLWD
29 Jul
@ FC Copenhagen
1–2
L
23 Jul
vs FC Copenhagen
3–3
D
14 Jul
@ Plzen
0–2
L
14 Jul
vs Shimizu S-pulse
1–3
L
10 Jul
@ WSG Wattens
2–1
W
9 Jul
vs Jagiellonia
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chornomorets and Polessya.
What is the prediction for Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Chornomorets vs Polessya?
On our numbers Chornomorets have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Polessya 63%.
How many goals will there be in Chornomorets vs Polessya?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our predicted score is Chornomorets 0–2 Polessya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Chornomorets vs Polessya (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Chornomorets.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
