Value bet: Stevenage to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultStevenage to win45% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–114% · fair 7.35
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage preview and prediction
The match
The League One sees AFC Wimbledon take on Stevenage on Saturday 3 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Plough Lane. AFC Wimbledon are 18th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Stevenage sit 16th on 16 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
AFC Wimbledon's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Cambridge United 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Stevenage's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Walsall 6–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for AFC Wimbledon and 1.2 for Stevenage. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: AFC Wimbledon 32%, draw 23%, Stevenage 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Stevenage to win at 2.45 – 45% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Prediction
Our prediction: Both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Stevenage. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AFC Wimbledon32%fair 3.13 · @2.90
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Stevenage45%fair 2.24 · @2.45
2.20Expected goals
0.97AFC Wimbledon xG
1.23Stevenage xG
50%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: AFC Wimbledon 1.0 – 1.2 Stevenage expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stevenage to win
45%
2.24
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Stevenage / FT Stevenage
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
14%
7.35
–
Form
AFC Wimbledon – last 6
DDWWLW
26 Sep
@ Cambridge United
1–1
D
17 Sep
vs Milton Keynes Dons
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Doncaster
1–0
W
7 Sep
@ Bromley
2–0
W
2 Sep
@ Burton Albion
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Wigan
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Stevenage – last 6
WLWWDD
22 Sep
@ Walsall
6–1
W
19 Sep
@ Leyton Orient
0–1
L
10 Sep
vs Luton
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Barnsley
5–1
W
1 Sep
@ Peterborough
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Doncaster
2–2
D
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage.
What is the prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
On our numbers AFC Wimbledon have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Stevenage 45%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Our predicted score is AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Stevenage, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage (League One) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Plough Lane.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
