Newport County vs Chesterfield prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Chesterfield or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Chesterfield to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultChesterfield to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceChesterfield or draw ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.69
Newport County vs Chesterfield preview and prediction
The match
Newport County host Chesterfield in the League Two on Friday 30 October, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT) at Rodney Parade. Newport County are 14th with 18 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Chesterfield sit 10th on 19 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Newport County's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Cheltenham 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Chesterfield's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Crewe 5–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for Newport County and 1.8 for Chesterfield. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newport County 20%, draw 20%, Chesterfield 60%.
Safer route: Chesterfield or draw (80%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Chesterfield to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Chesterfield or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Newport County 0–1 Chesterfield. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newport County20%fair 5.00 · @3.40
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.30
Chesterfield60%fair 1.67 · @1.95
2.77Expected goals
0.93Newport County xG
1.84Chesterfield xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–36%
0–06%
From our goals model: Newport County 0.9 – 1.8 Chesterfield expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chesterfield to win✗
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Chesterfield or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Chesterfield ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chesterfield / FT Chesterfield✗
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.69
–
Form
Newport County – last 6
LDDWDD
24 Oct
@ Cheltenham
0–1
L
20 Oct
@ Rotherham
2–2
D
17 Oct
vs York
1–1
D
10 Oct
vs Colchester
1–0
W
6 Oct
vs Plymouth
2–2
D
3 Oct
@ Gillingham
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Chesterfield – last 6
WDLDWL
24 Oct
vs Crewe
5–1
W
20 Oct
vs Colchester
1–1
D
17 Oct
@ Port Vale
0–1
L
10 Oct
@ Crawley Town
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs Tranmere
4–2
W
26 Sep
@ Cheltenham
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newport County and Chesterfield.
What is the prediction for Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Our pick is Chesterfield or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Newport County vs Chesterfield?
On our numbers Newport County have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Chesterfield 60%.
How many goals will there be in Newport County vs Chesterfield?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Our predicted score is Newport County 0–1 Chesterfield, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Newport County vs Chesterfield (League Two) kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Rodney Parade.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
