Value bet: Fakel to win @ 3.24 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAkhmat to win ✗39% · @2.33
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.80
Fakel vs Akhmat preview and prediction
The match
The Cup sees Fakel take on Akhmat on Tuesday 27 October, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Fakel Stadium.
Form guide
Fakel's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Rodina Moskva 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Akhmat's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to FC Orenburg 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Fakel arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 August 2026, finished Akhmat 2–1 Fakel. Across their last 2 meetings Fakel have won 0, Akhmat 1, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Fakel and 1.3 for Akhmat. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fakel 36%, draw 24%, Akhmat 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.81.
Value angle: Fakel to win at 3.24 – 36% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.23. Predicted score: Fakel 1–1 Akhmat. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fakel36%fair 2.76 · @3.24
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.24
Akhmat39%fair 2.54 · @2.33
2.55Expected goals
1.24Fakel xG
1.31Akhmat xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.2 – 1.3 Akhmat expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Fakel vs Akhmat?
On our numbers Fakel have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Akhmat 39%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Akhmat?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Akhmat?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 Akhmat, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Akhmat?
Fakel vs Akhmat (Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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