Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Bolton to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBolton to win ✗41% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.52
Derby vs Bolton preview and prediction
The match
Derby host Bolton in the Championship on Friday 6 November, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Pride Park. Derby are 23rd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Bolton sit 18th on 17 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Derby's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Norwich 0–4 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Bolton's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Charlton 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Bolton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.4 for Derby and 1.5 for Bolton. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derby 36%, draw 23%, Bolton 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Bolton to win at 2.70 – 41% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Derby 1–1 Bolton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derby36%fair 2.76 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.40
Bolton41%fair 2.45 · @2.70
2.96Expected goals
1.43Derby xG
1.53Bolton xG
64%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Derby 1.4 – 1.5 Bolton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bolton to win✗
41%
2.45
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.56
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bolton / FT Bolton✗
24%
4.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.52
–
Form
Derby – last 6
LLDLLD
3 Nov
vs Norwich
0–4
L
31 Oct
@ Millwall
1–4
L
24 Oct
@ Sheffield Utd
1–1
D
17 Oct
vs Stoke City
0–1
L
14 Oct
@ QPR
1–4
L
10 Oct
vs Wrexham
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bolton – last 6
WLLDWL
3 Nov
@ Charlton
1–0
W
31 Oct
vs Bristol City
2–3
L
23 Oct
vs Middlesbrough
1–5
L
17 Oct
@ Southampton
0–0
D
13 Oct
@ Wolves
3–1
W
10 Oct
vs Stoke City
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Bolton.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
On our numbers Derby have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bolton 41%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Bolton?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Bolton?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Bolton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Bolton?
Derby vs Bolton (Championship) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
