Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouthampton to win ✓67% · @1.57
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓90% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.14
Southampton vs Portsmouth preview and prediction
The match
Southampton host Portsmouth in the Championship on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT) at St. Mary's Stadium. Southampton are 7th with 24 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Portsmouth sit 11th on 22 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Southampton's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to Wrexham 1–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Portsmouth's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with Blackburn 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Southampton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.3 for Southampton and 0.9 for Portsmouth. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 59%.
Our pre-match pick was Southampton to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Southampton 2–0 Portsmouth. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Southampton67%fair 1.49 · @1.57
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @4.00
Portsmouth10%fair 9.91 · @5.00
3.20Expected goals
2.32Southampton xG
0.88Portsmouth xG
59%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–110%
1–09%
3–08%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Southampton 2.3 – 0.9 Portsmouth expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✓
67%
1.49
1.57 ▲
Double chance
Southampton or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.17 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Southampton ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✓
46%
2.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.14
–
Form
Southampton – last 6
LWWDDW
19 Sep
@ Wrexham
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Bristol City
4–1
W
8 Sep
vs Swansea
3–1
W
5 Sep
@ Lincoln
1–1
D
1 Sep
@ Birmingham
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Millwall
5–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Portsmouth – last 6
DDWLLW
19 Sep
vs Blackburn
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Charlton
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Cardiff
2–0
W
1 Sep
vs Derby
0–2
L
29 Aug
@ Bristol City
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Lincoln
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Portsmouth.
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Our pick is Southampton to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Southampton vs Portsmouth?
On our numbers Southampton have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Portsmouth 10%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Portsmouth?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Our predicted score is Southampton 2–0 Portsmouth, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Southampton vs Portsmouth (Championship) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Mary's Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
